19 Comments

I do think it’s important to look at Australia’s exceptional situation. But I may be biased.

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Aug 12, 2023Liked by Lorenzo Warby

From what little I know about Australian economy, I believe that there were more restrictions on leverage/gearing regarding housing than the US and Europe. Not to say there hasn't been housing inflation.

If that was indeed the case then, while not causative, could be one factor moderating the crisis in Australia.

If the same leverage restrictions existed for commercial investing (e.g. office complexes) that could also assist in moderating debt deflation cycles.

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Once Creative Destruction was called Arson for the Insurance money, but we call it economics.

My rejection being American and Categorical.

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You can’t understand America now if you don’t understand The Revolt of The Elites in the 60s.

The Elites are trying hard indirectly (as they are cowards) to solve the tragedy of the commons by extirpating the commons via social destruction (the primary goal of creative destruction) via economics above all - economics in America is War - drugs, family breakdown, riots. Crime for instance is cyclically unleashed or cracked down on as electoral politics demands (and fortunes made in real estate see Pritzkers). There’s also open borders de facto under Democrats , not that the Republicans do more than talk. Automation and offshoring were also attractive until the last 3 years.

*AI is Satan because it threatens the key political support of the next to top 14% whom the 1% rely on.

*AI LLMs are actually Artificial Intuition guessers, there’s at least one English Major having a great new career as AI prompt Engineer. She’s making a living doing what kids on Reddit do for laughs (me too, I admit it).

https://www.businessinsider.com/how-to-write-better-ai-chatgpt-prompts-according-prompt-engineer-2023-3

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LW from my American standpoint what do you think of the idea of energy money?

That is to say the Kilowatt dollar?

This would restore the intrinsic value of money, bend the energy curve and allow for the overwhelming policy priority of MORE. It’s delusional to think that MORE overwhelming all will go away absent a bout of creative destruction on the level of 1200 BC but with nukes (we’re at 1201 now).

Henry Ford had the idea some decades ago. Energy money is of course a logical destination of the Petrodollar, and probably preferable to the current path likely outcomes .... see again 1200 BC with nukes.

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Hmm. Is another explanation of our long 'recession-free' run simply that we ran a massive immigration program? If you import 1-2% population per year, then you need a pretty bad business cycle contraction to actually have negative GDP. If you look at Australia in per-capita GDP, you'll see we've had several recessions this past 2 decades.

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